Market Predictions

I’m reassured daily that my ability to predict this market is as valid as Hedge Fund Manager X, or Goldman Sachs Analyst Y. This is a concern most traders I read, follow, or know, consider every day. Few admit it, but that little voice keeps traders up at night. You’ve identified resistance/support, ran the headline/earnings risk, looked at your favorite indicators, and pulled a trigger with the best information at your disposal. Experience is teaching me to ignore distractions, key in on panic, and tiptoe around earnings and volatility. My opinions aren’t any better (or worse) than the talking-heads we watch daily. I personally detest CNBC, and prefer Bloomberg but the noise is admittedly the same.

You have to find some humor in all of this. Sarah Palin has been a good source, Obama and the Fed are running a close second without forgetting John Stewart!

On to more serious subjects… I’m predicting consolidation in one of two ranges on the $SPY: Between 106 and 118 or if we continue to head south between 87 and 97. The following is a 3 year chart, for an idea.

SPY Ranges to WatchObviously, there’s support and resistance to play with at these levels for the shorter term players. This morning we’re seeing a small bounce corresponding to about half the fall yesterday. That’s not especially reassuring but keep your eyes open for buying oportunities. I’ve covered most of my short positions, though probably will add more if the RSI for some reason explodes and VIX tanks. A voir… I’m very curious where the market closes today. The Volume is light ahead of the Fed meeting.