Fade the Close into Vacation

Not too much intelligent seems to be passing through my little and sceptical-by-nature brain today. It’s Friday again and the start of another well-deserved vacation here in France. I’m avoiding Athens.

Europe is all happy about the upcoming post-pre-meeting with rumors that Merkozy and team are happily in agreement. But it’s so terribly obvious that these are press releases to calm unintended leaks that they actually aren’t happily in agreement. If that makes any sense… The short story seems to be that the meeting this weekend is key (but it isn’t because there’s another next week)… So halfway into the pre-meeting, pre-weekend trading day, Europe is closing on it’s highs with the CAC40 up almost 3% and the $SPY sitting up 1.7%. I’m looking to fade into the close, this is all just too rosy for me. If the $ES_F doesn’t break through 1236, well, fade with confidence.

I spoke with an investment banker today who says it’s dead calm, and they’re just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Radio silence and fear for IBs. Remember the song by Foreigner, “Urgent”? It’s a happy emergency song, and that fits the prevailing mood.

It’s unlikely I’ll be posting much for the next few days, though I have been working my way through “This Time is Different” by Carmen Reinhart, maybe I’ll write a review, we’ll see.

Have a good vacation.