Missed Trade

Suffering from a lack of inspiration and a little voice in my head which says: “Don’t trade today, don’t trade today, Monday’s aren’t good for you…”

So I’m analyzing the short $ES_F trade I didn’t make but thought about making. Here it is, I’ve circled it. My targets were well placed, and I still ignored it. “Don’t trade today, don’t trade today…”

S&P Futures

The headline effects were limited with nothing on the calendar in the US. Only fear and loathing here in Europe, so the set up was perfect.

Here’s a quote I like from ZH this afternoon. (You can find the full piece here.)

For the moment we appear to be in limbo, where stocks and other risk assets will rally no matter what?  The view seems to be that if European sovereign debt improves, then risk will do well.  There is little fear right now, as the assumption is that if sovereign debt does poorly, Germany will relent and the ECB will officially begin printing money (we say officially, because it is getting harder and harder to believe they are truly “sterilizing” their purchase in a true market neutral fashion). So that seems to be the idea out there, be long risk because if Europe improves, you will win, and if Europe gets worse, it will print, and you will win.  That just doesn’t make sense to us, as we think Germany is further from capitulating on printing than the market seems to have priced in.