Bouncing S&P

CSII’m disoriented.

A 5.2% bounce in the CAC40 and a 3.0% bounce in the SPY ? It looks like the IMF-Italy rumors from Europe and the Black Friday sales numbers (fabricated numbers) sent a wave of euphoria through the markets this morning. Again, nothing has changed. Rumors might have some truth to them, but european sovereigns are still a huge mess and contagion management is still absent. It’s been 2 years.

Is this an opportunity to short the EUR.USD? It’s up only about 0.5%. Doesn’t that seem a bit weak given a 5% rise in Paris and 3% rise in the $SPY? It does to me.

My ratio spread idea that I proposed last week is performing well. I added a 120/112 bear spread now that 115 has appeared as a potential resistance point if the market decides to head south. Unfortunately, I continue to get burned with my ES trades, I’m not working with the right time-frames (for me). I know that and have made this error more than once. I’m writing that here for one reason, so I don’t forget, again.

I hate reading negative headlines day after day without an alternative point of view. We’re fed politically motivated rumors attempting to reassure, though these attempts fail miserably because they’re UNBELIEVABLE, think ‘super committee’. We’re fed ‘viral’ Black Friday sensational pepper spray fights and occupy protests – which sadly are MORE BELIEVABLE. You really don’t have to wait for consumer confidence numbers to understand the mood on the street.

On French television last night, by pure coincidence I watched a pepper spray-human combustion-aluminium lady rerun of The Experts (CSI). It wasn’t agency issue water based pepper spray, but butane. Ah! The person that selects these reruns must have a sense of humor, if only Grissom had a financial column…