Closing Clues for the Opening Zeal

I noted the surprising strength into the closing yesterday with surprise. No news was good news, but I’d expected a tail off towards the end of day, which never came. London has been closed for the last 2 days traders have come back to work today, and I think this plays into the early enthusiasm. No market moving headline news has come across the wire.

Europe is waiting for ECB news at 12:45 GMT. There’s also some potential market moving indicators at 8:30 EST ( Productivity Rev.) and the Fed’s Beige Book at 14:00 EST.

Assumptions:

  • We’re at the 50% fib levels on this bounce, so it’s a breakout or breakdown period. I’ll have to pick a camp and/or look at vol trades.

Plan:

  • Add some June 129 Puts after the opening vol fades.
  • Watch the June 125 Puts for a short entry. Will there be an ECB effect?
  • Looking for $2.36 on Natural Gas $QG_F
  • Reassess strategy if $ES_F starts passing 1306.

Truth:

  • Spin has a half-life