Rambling about nothing is better than proclaiming some truth based on limited information.
And as we know, we know very little when it comes to predicting market moves. Just this morning, for example, terrible numbers hit the tape and the S&P continues oozing skyward. Good is Good, Bad is Good, the Fed is Good, indefference is even good. Until it isn’t.
So I thought I’d ramble about a few divergences which have me perplexed.
The first jumped out at me yesterday while the VIX was climbing on momentum WITH the S&P. Technically that happens but it was screaming “look at me” yesterday. Options in general and puts in particular were getting bid up while the market was climbing. Fear of a rising market?
The second has been obvious all year, but it’s worth thinking about. The Gold Story – some would call it the Apple Story…
If you take the premise that gold is a hedge against inflation, gold isn’t worried, atleast paper gold isn’t. That surprises me, because there’s another argument: easy money from the central bank leads to inflation. This argument seems on firmer footing, every central bank in the world is printing. Yet it’s the divergence which has me looking for a trade.
Here are some other good divergences, credit/macro/vix/10yr, labeled ‘just plain silly‘ from ZH.