I wasn’t completely blindsided by this pullback, but the head-fake after bouncing off the 50% fib scared me off my short trades. That’s the way it goes. What could have been a beautiful setup falls into the category of live and learn.
Here’s part of the bearish argument; here’s atleast one reason not to jump back in long, yet.
- Rising Historical Volatility – the last 3 times we passed this HV level there was more downside.
- Testing the 50% Fib, again
- The upward channel works until 1600.
- That 1600 falls at the 23.6% fib