Category Archives: EUR

Euro-Dollar, Dollar-Yen Curiosity

I watch this EUR.USD – USD.JPY curve, on a weekly chart, just because…  The trend is consistent usually, the Euro rises the Yen rises (I’ve inverted the USD.JPY to see the effect against the Euro), back and forth. I’ve yet to seriously trade this but still watch the curve, looking for something ‘abnormal’. This morning I notice a divergence. Here’s a few examples from early August of how the 2 pairs normally trend.

EURUSDJPY ChartAnd another:

EURUSDJPY Chart 2Then today, things look a little different.

EURUSDJPY Chart 3I’m looking today for a logical explanation, if you have any ideas drop me an email.

That spike in US Treasury yields?

Jeff

Apple Pie – Bank Heist

bonnie and clydeI was wondering about insider trading today. Just a thought; a handful of people, Apple insiders, who are at this moment fully aware of what the market will do in 1 hr. Not just Apple. Lets say you’re in the know for the earnings which are due short(ly). Obviously you can’t trade Apple, but as a market moving stock could you just trade the index ahead of the announcement and be free-and-clear of any impropriety? A harmless quicky… I have no idea, but it’s a perfectly simple question. That question lead me to another market moving curiosity.

Did you see that ES flash crash after the fake AP tweet? I’m surprised it’s not bigger news. 260,000 ES contracts traded, $20 billion notational changed hands, and lots of traders got screwed as their stop losses got triggered. And that’s just the S&P futures market! Bonds, European Futures, Forex, VIX, Oil, everybody got hit for 3 minutes. Oh well… In those 3 minutes well over $1 trillion changed hands! Some serious commission…

Obviously most of those trades were algo driven, so maybe the weak link in High Frequency Trading (HFT)  isn’t the speed, or buggy trading programs (Knight…) after all, but the social media resources HFT uses to drive it’s algos. Just sayin, if you’re a bad guy, why try to hack an exchange, a fund, a market moving enterprise, or bank? Hack a Twitter account.

They might just find the culprit by looking at who really, I mean really, profited from that tweet. We just experienced a modern-day bank heist. Hello good guys? Maybe you should be googling B099i3 & C1yd3

Have fun into Apple’s earnings, I personally can’t wait till it’s over.

EUR-USD Chart

Something Is Always Parabolic

Gold's Parabolic Fall

The surprise yesterday was gold. We’re always looking for congruence within the paradigms we’ve learned to believe in. I had heard somewhere gold was a safe haven play. During periods of fear or worry, in theory, we should see gold rise while money moves away from risky assets (like the S&P).

That didn’t happen yesterday.

We’ve been told over and over gold is a safe asset, real money. Those rules are too simplistic and after getting burned a few times we start doubting our basic notions. And the press doesn’t bother with details. If gold is up they’ll say “The Fed” and if gold is down, “Cyprus”. In reality information we never see is what drives these markets. In the case of gold it might be sovereigns buying (or selling), Fed fear, short covering, muppet trading, shenanigans in a dark pool, an Asian holiday, or a sublime combination. Traders scramble for an explanation, they scramble to mount another paradigm, to justify tomorrows trade. I do it, you do it, that’s the game.  The game gets easier though when you accept that you’re basing a decision on incomplete, simplistic, and probably false, information. I can tell you categorically, whatever your model is, it’s wrong. In all cases, even Goldman Sachs, a Central Bank, or a sneaky congressman will eventually find his assumptions, wrong. Continue reading

Market Sentiment Like We’ve “Never” Seen It

In 1985 I graduated High School, in what at the time, I considered the sticks. In truth suburban Cincinnati wasn’t so far from London, New York, or Paris. Ask Nolwenn Leroy, all types of interesting people pass through Cincinnati.

Me

I’ve found myself in the sticks again, I’ve left Paris for some fresh air and space. I’ve moved to a charming valley, called the Vallée de l’Eure. This change after living in Cincinnati, New York, London, and Paris is refreshing, and exciting. The trading strategies I employ have nothing to do with the stress and noise of Paris, I’m hoping to be more effective here. For those of you who have followed this blog, you’ve seen what’s probably a classic novice trader’s chemin. My interests over the last year have focused on index futures, and option hedges. This year I’ll continue with these products.

A lot has been happening since I last spent a few hours ranting here on Brandnet and I have so many ideas bouncing around in my head that this first post of March risks being incomprehensible, beware.

Here are some of the contradictions that get me thinking:

  • Europe, and it’s place in the world economy – for that matter in my economy…
    • Italy and it’s comedy, specifically
  • Youth, Unemployment, Ambition
    • Subway
  • The media’s handling of politics and the economy
  • Bitcoin, Wealth, distribution
  • Market tempered euphoria
  • Trading strategy

Admittedly the white smoke, the pope, and the historic deconstruction of how Francis will move on 4 wheels takes a certain effort to avoid, but this too will pass, as Vatican punditry fades.

2Paragraphs has a refreshing perspective.

Dow_EURUSDStarting with Europe’s Spring head fake, Europe still hasn’t paid the piper. My last post, Will Europe Find Center Stage (Again)? rings true, still. The economic numbers continue to disappoint and the European markets continue to levitate, following the US markets to recent highs. Ten straight now. The flagrant disconnect in the EURUSD defies logic. Manipulation? Obviously. This divergence is tradeable, but when? You would expect euphoria, and all you sense is apathy, as if the smart money is dumb, and the dumb money is in hibernation.

The founder of Subway, Fred Deluca claims regulation would prohibit the creation of Subway if he tried to start-up today. The spin around this story, puts me in papal avoidance mode, yet the premise strikes a chord. I’m reminded of a grandparent saying how hard they had life, wearing that struggle as a badge of honor. That tale is turned on its head today. In fact life was easy for our Grandparents, or so we’re told. Ambitious youth, educated and indebted face an increasingly difficult journey.

Yet if you compare American youth to their Italian, Spanish, Greek, French and Portuguese brethren who live with nearly insurmountable under employment (though less debt), I have to ask where and when the social impact of this horror will appear on the nightly news. What would our Grandparents say? Or what should we say to our Grandparents?

The EURUSD chart above reflects a manipulated market and a manipulated currency. The ECB and the Federal Reserve are responsable, politicians are complicit, and many argue fully justified. Yet, since we left the gold standard for a fiat currency, currency manipulation, QE or whatever lever central banks choose to employ, is fully accepted as prudent economic theory. The gold standard debate is a can of worms, lets avoid it. But PhD’s assert sans fin, the brilliance behind financial structure, and the strategies employed to manage employment and inflation. That alone raises questions. The simple idea that currency shouldn’t be manipulated by central banks is a powerful idea. Simple = Smart?

Bitcoin is constantly catching my attention, I’m trying to grasp the disruptive potential. I absolutely love the pitch, but struggle to grasp the reality. A recent ‘bug’ caused major stress in the bitcoin market. (here) On the other hand, Argentina’s capital controls are a boon to bitcoin… This  just gets more interesting. My personal experience so far is limited and a ‘wallet’ that just never seems to be synchronised. It’s going to take some work to understand the utility, but the fact that we can buy cupcakes, and trade bitcoin as a unmanipulated currency keeps my attention. (One of my recent posts on Bitcoin.)

Good Trading.

CAC40-ES-040213

Will Europe Find Center Stage (Again)?

This morning’s trading is as expected, weak. The semi-euphoric, all is well in Dodge, 5 year highs, and stock buying humor from Scott Adams – the creator of Dilbert – gives any sane trader reason to wait for a resolution of 1500 on the SPX. I’ll quote his whole post (here). Continue reading

Pre-Market Indicators October 12th, 2012

Good Morning NY.

The CBOE Equity and Index put-call ratios are updated, here. The ratios are strikingly balanced, Equity at .65. It has been lower 39.69% of the time, and Index at 1.14 which only has been lower 29.54% of the time since June 2011.

The markets look green, and feel flat.

On tap: PPI, Core PPI, Michigan Sentiment, Treasury Budget.

  • EURUSD (1.2914) + 0.31%
  • Gold (GC)  + 0.41%
  • Oil (CL) + 1.00%
  • S&P (ES)  + 0.37%
  • CAC40 + 0.65% 
  • FTSE + 0.53%
  • Asia (NKD) + 0.47%
  • Copper (HG) + 0.73%
  • Silver (SI) + 0.48%
  • VIX: Close 16.29
Pre-Market Indicators - PMI111012

Pre-Market Indicators October 11th, 2012

Good Morning NY.

The CBOE Equity and Index put-call ratios are updated, here. The ratios are still interestingly divergent, Equity at .71. It has been lower 63.89% of the time, and Index at 1.02 which only has been lower 14.51% of the time since June 2011.

The markets look green, and feel green.

On tap: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Trade Balance, Export Prices ex-ag, Import Prices ex-oil and Crude Inventories.

  • EURUSD (1.2914) + 0.31%
  • Gold (GC)  + 0.41%
  • Oil (CL) + 1.00%
  • S&P (ES)  + 0.37%
  • CAC40 + 0.65% 
  • FTSE + 0.53%
  • Asia (NKD) + 0.47%
  • Copper (HG) + 0.73%
  • Silver (SI) + 0.48%
  • VIX: Close 16.29

Continue reading