Tag Archives: Apple

The Divergences Screaming, Hello?!

Rambling about nothing is better than proclaiming some truth based on limited information.

And as we know, we know very little when it comes to predicting market moves. Just this morning, for example, terrible numbers hit the tape and the S&P continues oozing skyward. Good is Good, Bad is Good, the Fed is Good, indefference is even good. Until it isn’t.

So I thought I’d ramble about a few divergences which have me perplexed.

The first jumped out at me yesterday while the VIX was climbing on momentum WITH the S&P. Technically that happens but it was screaming  “look at me” yesterday. Options in general and puts in particular were getting bid up while the market was climbing. Fear of a rising market?

VIX ES DIVERGENCE

The second has been obvious all year, but it’s worth thinking about. The Gold Story – some would call it the Apple Story…

If you take the premise that gold is a hedge against inflation, gold isn’t worried, atleast paper gold isn’t. That surprises me, because there’s another argument: easy money from the central bank leads to inflation. This argument seems on firmer footing, every central bank in the world is printing. Yet it’s the divergence which has me looking for a trade.

ES GC Divergence

Here are some other good divergences, credit/macro/vix/10yr, labeled ‘just plain silly‘ from ZH.

 

Apple Pie – Bank Heist

bonnie and clydeI was wondering about insider trading today. Just a thought; a handful of people, Apple insiders, who are at this moment fully aware of what the market will do in 1 hr. Not just Apple. Lets say you’re in the know for the earnings which are due short(ly). Obviously you can’t trade Apple, but as a market moving stock could you just trade the index ahead of the announcement and be free-and-clear of any impropriety? A harmless quicky… I have no idea, but it’s a perfectly simple question. That question lead me to another market moving curiosity.

Did you see that ES flash crash after the fake AP tweet? I’m surprised it’s not bigger news. 260,000 ES contracts traded, $20 billion notational changed hands, and lots of traders got screwed as their stop losses got triggered. And that’s just the S&P futures market! Bonds, European Futures, Forex, VIX, Oil, everybody got hit for 3 minutes. Oh well… In those 3 minutes well over $1 trillion changed hands! Some serious commission…

Obviously most of those trades were algo driven, so maybe the weak link in High Frequency Trading (HFT)  isn’t the speed, or buggy trading programs (Knight…) after all, but the social media resources HFT uses to drive it’s algos. Just sayin, if you’re a bad guy, why try to hack an exchange, a fund, a market moving enterprise, or bank? Hack a Twitter account.

They might just find the culprit by looking at who really, I mean really, profited from that tweet. We just experienced a modern-day bank heist. Hello good guys? Maybe you should be googling B099i3 & C1yd3

Have fun into Apple’s earnings, I personally can’t wait till it’s over.

Prince Harry

What I’m NOT Reading (WINR)

Prince HarryHere are a few to avoid for this sunny start of the week.

If you’re looking to waste even more time, here’s the history of WINR.

Britney Spears

What I’m NOT Reading (WINR)

Britney SpearsI hardly had time to read, let alone NOT read. Here’s a quick list of crap.

Good Trading

Jenny McCarthy Playboy

What I’m NOT Reading (WINR)

Good Morning.Jenny McCarthy Playboy

It’s dreary and rainy in Paris, the last thing I need is a distraction. A few good ones to avoid…