Tag Archives: CAC40 Futures

Interdites Pelouses

Pre-Market Indicators August 20th, 2012

Interdites Pelouses

This should be “Interdites Pelouses”

Good Monday Morning NY.

  • EURUSD (1.2355)  0.24%
  • Gold Futures (GC) passing up 1600 ($1613.90)  0.17%
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.05%
  • S&P Futures (ES)  -0.09%
  • CAC40 -0.07% 
  • FTSE  0.34%
  • Asia (NKD)  0.11%
  • Corn Futures (ZC) + 0.56%
  • Copper Futures (HG) -1.65%
  • VIX: Yesterday’s Close 13.45
CAC40 Chart

Parabolic Draghi

I’ve written before about my frustrations with central bank intervention, and today I’ll write about it again. I just can’t trade on anything but central banker speaking dates. Yesterday, we had a pre-Draghi post-Draghi opening and today we had follow through. Will weekend rumors calm the overexcited? They’ve started already with the WSJ reporting that other ECB board members are a bit surprised by Draghi’s comments and who better than ZH to add fuel to the fire (here).

The best and maybe most actionable information would be this quote:

If the ECB does nothing next week, the markets will tumble.

I tend to agree, yet something other than talk is unlikely, and I can’t deny the markets reaction, so in-the-end who cares if things change or not? Paul Krugman seems to be ok with the status quo (here). With today’s market reaction who could disagree, deficits schmesifts!

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Calvin and Distraction

Still Searching Mr. Discipline

Scattered comes to mind.Calvin and Distraction

I’ve spend the better part of this year working to find the products and indicators which correspond to my trading style. The books I read profess all sorts of strategies, techniques, psychology, and speak of discipline. One of the purposes of this blog has been to keep a journal, of sorts, adding at least one element of discipline to my routine.

Expectations revisited.

I recently reviewed my successes and failures from a financial perspective. I mention “scattered” because scattered distraction has been my personal sand trap. I dabbled early with equities and day trading, even though  options were by far my preference, I stumbled on some irresistable futures swing trades which swung the wrong way, I spent a large amount of time digging into large option trades and researching option pricing, I worked hard with vertical, calendar, butterfly, condor and spread adjustment strategies.

I’d expected that a decision to continue or to stop this adventure would be self-evident, I’d have lost money or made money and the distance along this curve would represent conviction. I was half right. In the end, I’ve made money and I am reassured, but I’m not far enough along that conviction curve. The surprising thing is that it felt as if I lost money, I saw more failures than successes. Obviously, you enter trades with conviction. My successes were fortunately larger, which is critical, but what I didn’t expect was that psychologically, loss after loss, against fewer wins left me surprisingly unsure.

I found that I enjoy trading the SPY options, the ES_F, and even the CAC40 futures. In the end, I lost money on equities and made money with my options and futures trades. I was most successful trading options, but worked harder on these. I’ll continue this year with options and futures, but leave the equities behind.

This year.

Discipline and Structure are going to be the keywords. Thinking like Calvin, considered them entered into my mission statement… I’m going to spend more time with the charts this year and I’m going to work on letting the market move into my trade. I wrote about the EUR.USD yesterday here, this might be a good way to kick things off.

Good Trading, it’s been an interesting day, already!

CAC40

An Acceleration in the Debate on Growth

I love irony. The AFP releases an article this morning “Avec Hollande, il y a eu une “accélération du débat sur la croissance”, estime Di Rupo :

Here’s the chart that goes with the growth!

CAC40

 

Maybe they should try doing something and stop debating.

Ugly AM for Short Leaners

That includes me!

It was a 1, 2, 3 punch of good news this morning.

  1. China lowering bank reserve requirements.
  2. Central Banks lower dollar swap rates hoping to bolster liquidity.
  3. ADP employment: comes in at 206,000 vs. 103,000 expected.

You don’t see this parabolic action often, with $ES_F futures up over 3% before the open, and the CAC40 up over 4%. For those that like Fibonacci, we’ve taken out 61/50/38% over the last 3 hours. Not bad if you were long at the close yesterday.

S&P 500 Futures

The ominous headlines this morning:

  1. 2 Million public workers strike in the UK
  2. UK embassy evacuated in Tehran
  3. UK expels Iranian Diplomats (France, Germany and Norway recall their diplomats for consultation) Hmm…
  4. Syria towards civil war

I like Zero Hedge

This is a quote by Tyler Durden on Zero Hedge.

We wonder whether the French AMF is also aware that one can just as easily create identical synthetic shorts by buying puts and selling calls on the names in question or maybe nobody in the French regulatory body has graduated beyond cash products and into derivatives.”

You can find the official shorting statement information on his posting. Why is it in English?

I was curious if I could synthetically short AXA or BNP. These shares are traded on the $CAC. I found a volume of 50 on the Sept. calls and a volume of 70 on the 11.5 calls in AXA and no volume on the ATM BNP options. I’ve never traded options on the european markets, but this still seems odd. AXA is up 2% on a volume of 5.6 million shares, and BNP up 3% on 3 million shares.

Apparently, it’s not that easy to create a synthetic short on these markets, at least for me.