ADP employment: comes in at 206,000 vs. 103,000 expected.
You don’t see this parabolic action often, with $ES_F futures up over 3% before the open, and the CAC40 up over 4%. For those that like Fibonacci, we’ve taken out 61/50/38% over the last 3 hours. Not bad if you were long at the close yesterday.
For the moment we appear to be in limbo, where stocks and other risk assets will rally no matter what? The view seems to be that if European sovereign debt improves, then risk will do well. There is little fear right now, as the assumption is that if sovereign debt does poorly, Germany will relent and the ECB will officially begin printing money (we say officially, because it is getting harder and harder to believe they are truly “sterilizing” their purchase in a true market neutral fashion). So that seems to be the idea out there, be long risk because if Europe improves, you will win, and if Europe gets worse, it will print, and you will win. That just doesn’t make sense to us, as we think Germany is further from capitulating on printing than the market seems to have priced in.