Tag Archives: Germany

Parabolic Curve

Pre-Market Indicators July 30th, 2012

Good Morning NY.

  • EURUSD (1.2238)  0.69%
  • Gold Futures (GC) still holding over 1600 ($1614.90) – 0.19% 
  • Oil Futures(CL)  0.55%
  • S&P Futures (ES) – 0.31%
  • Europe: CAC40 + 0.37% FTSE + 0.62%
  • Asia: (NKD) 0.98%
  • Grain Futures are up between 2-3%

Parabolic Curve

Translating the numbers, it looks like Europe is happy on vacation and the rest of the world is doubtful. The parabolic rise in European equities continue.

There’s a huge amount of expectations built up in ECB intervention, and rumored meetings between Spain, Germany, Draghi, etc.

Hollande appropriately is in London…

This will be a busy news week, expect greater volatility as it grows old.

Good Trading

Ugly AM for Short Leaners

That includes me!

It was a 1, 2, 3 punch of good news this morning.

  1. China lowering bank reserve requirements.
  2. Central Banks lower dollar swap rates hoping to bolster liquidity.
  3. ADP employment: comes in at 206,000 vs. 103,000 expected.

You don’t see this parabolic action often, with $ES_F futures up over 3% before the open, and the CAC40 up over 4%. For those that like Fibonacci, we’ve taken out 61/50/38% over the last 3 hours. Not bad if you were long at the close yesterday.

S&P 500 Futures

The ominous headlines this morning:

  1. 2 Million public workers strike in the UK
  2. UK embassy evacuated in Tehran
  3. UK expels Iranian Diplomats (France, Germany and Norway recall their diplomats for consultation) Hmm…
  4. Syria towards civil war

Missed Trade

Suffering from a lack of inspiration and a little voice in my head which says: “Don’t trade today, don’t trade today, Monday’s aren’t good for you…”

So I’m analyzing the short $ES_F trade I didn’t make but thought about making. Here it is, I’ve circled it. My targets were well placed, and I still ignored it. “Don’t trade today, don’t trade today…”

S&P Futures

The headline effects were limited with nothing on the calendar in the US. Only fear and loathing here in Europe, so the set up was perfect.

Here’s a quote I like from ZH this afternoon. (You can find the full piece here.)

For the moment we appear to be in limbo, where stocks and other risk assets will rally no matter what?  The view seems to be that if European sovereign debt improves, then risk will do well.  There is little fear right now, as the assumption is that if sovereign debt does poorly, Germany will relent and the ECB will officially begin printing money (we say officially, because it is getting harder and harder to believe they are truly “sterilizing” their purchase in a true market neutral fashion). So that seems to be the idea out there, be long risk because if Europe improves, you will win, and if Europe gets worse, it will print, and you will win.  That just doesn’t make sense to us, as we think Germany is further from capitulating on printing than the market seems to have priced in.