Tag Archives: Good Morning Viatnam

Good Morning Viatnam – S&P Retracement Levels

This morning it was ALL Japan – not Viatnam – I admit, but I woke up with Robin Williams ringing in my head.

 

The Nikkei extended their losses after:

  • BOJ REFRAINS FROM EXPANDING J-REIT, ETF PURCHASES
  • BOJ LEAVES FUNDING TERMS UNCHANGED AFTER JGB YIELD VOLATILITY

This sent the US and European markets into a tailspin. Expectations were obviously not met. It’s not often you see a gap open in the S&P down 1%. A bit unexpectedly the ES has been working off it’s overnight fear all day. Remember there’s a big buyer stalking…

Considering a slightly longer term, I’ve been looking at some potential cycles that might make good targets. If you’re even slightly bearish this perspective might interest you. If you’re bullish these might make good entry points.

I looked at three of the last major retracements during this bull market on a yearly chart.

  • September-November 2012
  • March – June 2012
  • May – September 2011

I measured the range as a percentage and measured the duration between the high and low. I’ve written about it, here. This is what I come up with:

Retracement Targets

If history rhymes, the medium term levels to keep an eye on:

  • 1558
  • 1515
  • 1400

And if this pullback continues we should be attentive around:

  • July 23rd
  • August 1st
  • October 24th

Even at these targets on the yearly chart, the market will still be trending upward. Count on the bears coming out of the woodwork.

Good Trading

Robin Williams