Tag Archives: JNPR

Cisco Contrarian Thinking

I read a well written post this morning on Ebeling Heffernan about Cisco’s earnings, due today after the close. The post lists the things working against Cisco:

  • Peer Performance – JNPR, BRCD, RVBD are all crashing…
  • Management and Restructuring Signals – Mediocre Management…
  • Austerity Order Risk – Governments aren’t buying…
  • Buy Back vs. Dividend Strategy – Buy back is worse…(?)

But Mr. Ebeling, Jr. fairly points out that at 8 – 9 times earnings Cisco might be on the extreme end of it’s ‘turn-a-round’.

Each time CSCO releases earnings, I try to find a good setup. My track record isn’t great and I hesitate to jump in again. As I mentioned in my post on July 18th we’re seeing concrete changes finally. So should we continue to play with this falling knife? It’s likely to dissappoint, again.

I’m going to buy stock. I’ve worked with their product and have confidence in it. That’s no trading strategy, but I’ll add a little stock today, for that reason only.  Isn’t that why we have the stock market? Under 14 looks cheap. I’m avoiding the options, unless I can come up with a decent spread.

Branding Diallo

The Guardian (and all the other major news outlets) continues reporting on DSK’s accuser; she’s not in it for the money. The lawyers, PR people, and talking-heads are following the roadshow of Nafissatou Diallo. It’s her turn…

Syria is stepping up raids while the world is distracted with sovereign debt.

Goldman Sachs (GS) upgrades Cisco (Street Insider)? We are starting to see concrete actions from Cisco, but with the Goldman upgrade I’m sceptical, again. This week $JNPR took a good 10% hit so what’s the strategy here??? Large institutional investors have a particular interest in seeing CSCO start to move. 66% is institutionally owned. Guessing 15 is the magic red-flag number.

Mediapart sheds some light on political advantage in the French Senate. Ongoing frustration with the priveleged class, and where they get the extra money… (Le Sénat distribue un million d’euros d’indemnités cachées à ses “dignitaires”)

Deadline fatigue… More after lunch!

I’ve eaten, and I still have deadline fatique… More after coffee?

Coffee and a freshman press conference. It lingers, still.

Taking Stock in LA and Ireland

If you squint the $SPY chart looks like a Scotty.

There where a lot of chasers and a few got nailed after 14h30. Just about that time Ireland gets a downgrade from Moody’s. (Los Angeles also was downgraded but I wasn’t sure how to trade that one!)

(A strange distraction and maybe Italy is on the repair. Ruby the Heart Stealer is pregnant.)

The Euro and european markets opened for a tough day and struggled into the close. The Euro was weak but little-by-little it worked off the bad “Spanish Contagion” press just until Moody’s lets rip the Irish downgrade to junk. It broke under 1.40 and it’s holding there for the moment. The Los Angeles downgrade isn’t so surprising, but what is, is this article where McConnell Proposes Giving Obama Authority to Raise Debt Limit Alone! This is not reassuring.

Netflix held on to close at 290.49 even with an announced price hike. I’m thinking we might be seeing a top side on this stock.

I watch Cisco closely as well, and it’s kept me interested on the short side, but this round of layoffs has me wondering. 14% of the workforce for a technology company that has been technically ahead of the curve, and with lots of cash… I’m sure their R&D will suffer and that some of their best will be heading off to $HP and $JNPR. We might start to see some movement in this stock upwards, but I’m quessing the quality of their products will be declining.