Tag Archives: Oil Futures

Friday Tango

Pre-Market Indicators August 17th, 2012

Friday Tango
Good Friday Morning NY.

  • EURUSD (1.2358) + 0.02%
  • Gold Futures (GC) passing up 1600 ($1617.20) + 0.06%
  • Oil Futures(CL)  0.12%
  • S&P Futures (ES)  – 0.07%
  • CAC40 + 0.07% 
  • FTSE + 0.19%
  • Asia: (NKD) + 0.66%
  • Corn Futures (ZC)  0.19%
  • VIX Yesterday’s Close 14.29
Sleeping Bear

Pre-Market Indicators August 16th, 2012

Sleeping BearGood Morning NY,

  • EURUSD (1.2314) + 0.19%
  • Gold Futures (GC) passing up 1600 ($1606.80) + 0.17%
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.53%
  • S&P Futures (ES)  + 0.25%
  • CAC40 + 0.06% 
  • FTSE  0.23%
  • Asia: (NKD) + 1.58%
  • Corn Futures (ZC) + 0.54%
  • VIX Yesterday’s Close 14.63, + .09%
Parabolic Curve

Pre-Market Indicators July 30th, 2012

Good Morning NY.

  • EURUSD (1.2238)  0.69%
  • Gold Futures (GC) still holding over 1600 ($1614.90) – 0.19% 
  • Oil Futures(CL)  0.55%
  • S&P Futures (ES) – 0.31%
  • Europe: CAC40 + 0.37% FTSE + 0.62%
  • Asia: (NKD) 0.98%
  • Grain Futures are up between 2-3%

Parabolic Curve

Translating the numbers, it looks like Europe is happy on vacation and the rest of the world is doubtful. The parabolic rise in European equities continue.

There’s a huge amount of expectations built up in ECB intervention, and rumored meetings between Spain, Germany, Draghi, etc.

Hollande appropriately is in London…

This will be a busy news week, expect greater volatility as it grows old.

Good Trading

Bloody Mary Cocktail

Pre-Market Indicators July 26th, 2012

Bloody Mary CocktailGood Morning NY.

Pre-Draghi

  • EURUSD (1.2128) – 0.24%
  • Gold Futures (GC) holding over 1600 at – 0.32% 
  • Oil Futures(CL) – 0.88%
  • S&P Futures (ES) – 0.41%
  • Europe: CAC40 – 0.31% FTSE – 0.19%
  • Asia: (NKD) flat
  • Grain Futures are weak and flat

Post-Draghi

  • EURUSD (1.2128) + 0.44%
  • Gold Futures (GC) holding over 1600 at + 0.21% 
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.22%
  • S&P Futures (ES) 0.47%
  • Europe: CAC40 + 1.25% FTSE + 0.73%

Things looked red and flat until Draghi started pledging he’ll do whatever he needs to do to save the euro, now all is well in the world. “ECB Wants To Break Link Between Banks, National Govts.” Yet… “The Exact Scope Of Supervision Still To Be Defined.

The markets are waiting on 8:30 EST for the claims and durable goods numbers. Expect volatility just before the open.

EUR USD Chart

Good Morning, After

EUR USD ChartGood Morning NY.

The indicators look ‘good’, the markets look ugly. After all the expectations, now it’s a sell the news day. Here’s the EURUSD chart… I’m expecting the broader markets to follow.

Here’s the rundown:

  • BOE, 50 billion in new money
  • ADP numbers beat 179k vs 105k
  • Initial Claims beat 374k vs 385k
  • Continuing Claims misses 3306k vs 3283k
  • ECB lowers rates to 0.75%
  • Gold Futures down -1.25%
  • Oil Futures down -0.56%
  • S&P Futures down -0.38%

Good Trading.

Pre-Market Euphindications

Good Morning,

Europe pledges to save itself for the weekend, and hopefully through the summer holiday. Everything is green except treasuries. Overwhelming expectations of bad news was not the trend to follow though the half-life is unpredictable. We’ll let the leaders pat themselves on the back for a while and watch the press fall over themselves atleast through the weekend. The details will start to bring back the sceptics.

On the surface, direct bank-recapitalization will free up pressure on the sovereigns and consensus from the EU to ‘boost growth’ should keep the market happy today.

  • Gold Futures are trading up +1.27%
  • CAC40 is trading up +2.13%
  • Oil Futures are trading up +2.39%
  • The S&P Futures are up +1.2%
  • The EURUSD is up+1.08%
  • Japanese housing starts were up +9% after beating expectations of +6.6%

S0 all is well before the weekend.

Good Trading

Will speculators be blamed for falling oil prices?

No, of course not. Demand is falling, the dollar is strong, Iraq and Libya are pumping qazillions of barrels, and Iran just isn’t that important, right? It’s an election year and the sky is raining double edged swords.

Only a dozen weeks ago I was reading about corporate and GDP growth, central banks were pulling the yoke hard and an upward trajectory was (nearly) assured. Demand for oil would be growing. I can’t deny the analysts and media their optimism, the argument in context was probably warranted. In my sceptical and admitedly naive mind, oil prices have less to do with supply and demand than the press conditions us to believe. Marketing, spin and speculation (isn’t hedging speculation?) aren’t given enough credit therefore might speculators be thanked if Light Sweet falls to $50? I’m sure they would be blamed if it went to $150.

It doesn’t really matter, who’s to blame or not, I just thought I’d ask the question.

It’s Friday, already.

The largest disconnects I see this morning are:  an .8% decline in the EURUSD which takes us back to Monday; a 3% decline in $CL; a 2% decline in $SI but the $ES has hardly reacted. I was expecting a market reaction to the Trade Balance Numbers, interpreted as a proxy for Chinese strength/weakness  and/or European strength/weakness. Nothing much happened, I guess it met expectations.

Good Trading.