It looks like Starbucks sticks well to it’s channel and is going to bump up against this 38 resistance line. All this chatter about declining commodity prices probably should have little or no impact as Starbucks would be well hedged, if anything declining coffee prices is a negative in the short term.
I’m thinking of Selling July 35 Puts and Buying July 38 Puts 2:1 or 3:1.
Here’s a blog on stockcharts.com that thinks differently.
Here’s a good chart and argument for shorts at 38 on Stock Option Assassin.
Here’s a pretty good $SBUX analysis on Trading with Leaf_West. Nice work.
IV30 is at 25.54 and the HV30 is at 22.66
The trade would cost about .79 at 2:1 or .54 at 3:1