Tag Archives: Silver Futures

Will speculators be blamed for falling oil prices?

No, of course not. Demand is falling, the dollar is strong, Iraq and Libya are pumping qazillions of barrels, and Iran just isn’t that important, right? It’s an election year and the sky is raining double edged swords.

Only a dozen weeks ago I was reading about corporate and GDP growth, central banks were pulling the yoke hard and an upward trajectory was (nearly) assured. Demand for oil would be growing. I can’t deny the analysts and media their optimism, the argument in context was probably warranted. In my sceptical and admitedly naive mind, oil prices have less to do with supply and demand than the press conditions us to believe. Marketing, spin and speculation (isn’t hedging speculation?) aren’t given enough credit therefore might speculators be thanked if Light Sweet falls to $50? I’m sure they would be blamed if it went to $150.

It doesn’t really matter, who’s to blame or not, I just thought I’d ask the question.

It’s Friday, already.

The largest disconnects I see this morning are:  an .8% decline in the EURUSD which takes us back to Monday; a 3% decline in $CL; a 2% decline in $SI but the $ES has hardly reacted. I was expecting a market reaction to the Trade Balance Numbers, interpreted as a proxy for Chinese strength/weakness  and/or European strength/weakness. Nothing much happened, I guess it met expectations.

Good Trading.

 

Crude Futures Weekly Chart

Gold and Silver Spike

Thinking still about warning signs, GC_F (Gold Futures) have spiked 1% in the last 30 minutes. Gold is nearing it’s all time high of $1900. Remember the paranoia? The talk of a bubble? We are not hearing any of that now.

Why the spike on no news? It’s hard to say, but either big buying or safe buying. If it were safety plays you would see an inverse relationship in the equity markets, which you don’t. So it’s a big buyer (or buyers).

Three charts which are playing contrary to the market:

Crude Futures CL_F

Crude Futures Weekly Chart

Silver Futures SI_F

Silver Futures Chart

Gold Futures GC_F

Gold Futures Chart