Tag Archives: S&P 500 Futures

Ugly AM for Short Leaners

That includes me!

It was a 1, 2, 3 punch of good news this morning.

  1. China lowering bank reserve requirements.
  2. Central Banks lower dollar swap rates hoping to bolster liquidity.
  3. ADP employment: comes in at 206,000 vs. 103,000 expected.

You don’t see this parabolic action often, with $ES_F futures up over 3% before the open, and the CAC40 up over 4%. For those that like Fibonacci, we’ve taken out 61/50/38% over the last 3 hours. Not bad if you were long at the close yesterday.

S&P 500 Futures

The ominous headlines this morning:

  1. 2 Million public workers strike in the UK
  2. UK embassy evacuated in Tehran
  3. UK expels Iranian Diplomats (France, Germany and Norway recall their diplomats for consultation) Hmm…
  4. Syria towards civil war

Gold Futures & the S&P

I can’t get over the rise in Gold Futures today $GC_F, while the S&P Futures $ES_F wallow around, teasing me.

Gold Futures vs S&P Futures

What’s going on here?  If you look at the pre-market action on $GC_F it’s even more obvious how nice it would have been to be a buyer this morning. It’ll hit 1800 before anything slightly interesting happens. I’ve missed a very good trade…

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autolib in Paris

This morning I discovered 2 installations of autolib very near my apartment.

autolib in Paris

This might be a very good business, atleast here in Paris. They’re planning on testing 3000 electric cars here. December 5th is the launch.

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ECB Pomp n Circus Stances

Welcome to a schizophrenic morning. The headline moves in the market today are being put in place this very minute and the future is spoken by only one of the many little foggy voices whispering in my head this morning. I picked him out on the $ES_F early than stopped him out for no good reason! Again…

[update] As I look at the close now, I’m reminded of Harry Potter’s House-elf, Dobby.

Fighting for top-spot is Mr. George Papandreou who after offering to resign, has just finished lunch in Cannes and is running back to Athens for an emergency cabinet meeting. The popular (and unpopular) press is waiting for the news conference. I think the BBC was the first to report this little twist.

At the same time and fully ignored were the initial claims numbers which came in under 400k. Relatively good news but the running soap opera that is the G20 has all but hijacked the positive earnings and unemployment numbers.

Another contendor is Mario Draghi (Super Mario as he’s becoming known), who after 2 days as the head of the ECB has surprised the markets by lowering it’s key lending rate to 1.25%. This runs contrary to his mandate to fight European inflation but he needs to pee in the garden and with essentially no growth coming from Europe he’s marking his territory. His press conference has just finished, and I have to say he speaks eloquently.

So between those three little tidbits, and the whispering voices in my head, the markets are now off to the races.

Good trading.

Fade the Close into Vacation

Not too much intelligent seems to be passing through my little and sceptical-by-nature brain today. It’s Friday again and the start of another well-deserved vacation here in France. I’m avoiding Athens.

Europe is all happy about the upcoming post-pre-meeting with rumors that Merkozy and team are happily in agreement. But it’s so terribly obvious that these are press releases to calm unintended leaks that they actually aren’t happily in agreement. If that makes any sense… The short story seems to be that the meeting this weekend is key (but it isn’t because there’s another next week)… So halfway into the pre-meeting, pre-weekend trading day, Europe is closing on it’s highs with the CAC40 up almost 3% and the $SPY sitting up 1.7%. I’m looking to fade into the close, this is all just too rosy for me. If the $ES_F doesn’t break through 1236, well, fade with confidence.

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Damien Cleusix Global Market Update

Watching paint dry, I stumbled on the reflections of Damien Cleusix today. Really good stuff and well worth reading.

Here’s the link from Zerohedge.

And this is just funny. Sarkozy is excitable and he wants the electorate to know. They released some news this morning that he was ready to go quickly to Frankfurt this afternoon.

Elvis has now left the building….

It started to rain and the markets finally started moving, with the $VIX pushing 35 and the $ES_F touching 1203, it’s time to start paying attention again. And this caught my attention…

From Bloomberg: America’s Bills About to Exceed it’s Paycheck.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows U.S. government debt divided among every man, woman and child will exceed per-capita gross domestic product this year for the first time in International Monetary Fund records dating back to 1980.

The amount owed will reach $46,771 per person, surpassing the $46,750 in output, according to Bloomberg calculations using the IMF’s deficit and growth projections from its September World Economic Outlook. Debt will exceed production by $8,000 per person by 2016, reversing GDP’s $18,400 advantage as recently as 2007, before the world’s largest economy fell into the recession and government spending surged.

U.S. Production vs. Government Debt

It’s hard to be bullish when you’re bombarded with little doses of reality.

I set up some $SPY Nov 121/111 bear spreads this morning and rest firmly bearish on “Europe” and the $EURUSD.

S&P Futures Day Trade

The trade I missed yesterday, came back for me today.

S&P Futures Day Trade

I’d like to know why I made this trade, so that I can make the same again tomorrow, but to be honest, again it simply felt right. Like the trade, I didn’t make yesterday. The American markets were getting tired of bad news from Europe and starting to ignore it.

In the larger context we’re at the top of this range with the bulls hoping for a breakout and the bears waiting for a bounce. I’m simply expecting this volatility to continue.