Tag Archives: TTMYGH

Johnny Cash

Johnny CashI have no explanation for it. Johnny Cash sings in my head. I don’t think his last name has anything to do with it, but I can’t entirely exclude the possibility.

Driving back to Paris on Sunday, I hear The Caretaker on FIP. Last night a friend in New Jersey tells me he’s coincidentally been on a Johnny Cash hokey-sentimental-reunion-tour, pulling out vinyl.

Maybe it’s the classic lines: The beer I had for breakfast wasn’t bad so I had another for dessert, or the holiday arriving, and A Johnny Cash Christmas subliminally starts to leak back into my consciousness.

I’m off track, and that, thanks to Grant Williams, who is growing increasingly frustrated with the state of the Gold Market. Aren’t we all?

His latest TTMYGH is as good as most, even if you’re tired with his fixation on Gold, you’ll learn something from his (what’s the adjective?) latest newsletter. He deconstructs Gold Price fixing. There is little doubt that 2 times per day in London a mini-cartel, with no legal constraints around their ability to trade or share trades, profits handsomely from their insight into forward prices. No manipulation there… He draws a common sense parallel with the London Gold Pool failure in 1967. Worth the read, again.

Besides Johnny Cash and Grant Williams, I’m intrigued today by the weakness in the S&P index. We’re all looking for signs of a top, might this be it? The VIX is creeping upward, and we see crowded Long Nikkei/Short Yen bets. What would a reversal confirmation look like, in a market that’s been climbing for years?

The chart mavens are calling in sick.

Grant Williams

Math and TTMYGH

I read Grant Williams religiously (and I don’t do much religiously).

I was pleased to see Grant’s stab at perspective. I’m paraphrasing, but my recent rant on JPMorgan’s legal fees (here, here) gave me the urge to give Mr. Williams a high-five. Here is a good example:

  • In 1995, $1.3 billion was enough to bring down Barings Bank.
  • In 1998, Long Term Capital Management required a $3.6 billion bailout from 14 financial institutions after losing $4.6 billion in less than four months.
  • In March of 2008, Bear Stearns received a 28-day, $25 billion loan from the Federal Reserve in order to avert its collapse
  • Six months later, on September 15th… Secretary Hank Paulson (or, as they were known back in those days, “Los Pollos Hermanos”), crafted a $787 billion bailout package. Continue reading
chimp

Smart People

chimpOne of the wonders of the human condition is creative intelligence and I’m constantly amazed by the ability to build perspective with simple ideas, thereby creating something inspiring or enlightening. Grant Williams is one of those people, whom I don’t know, but I admire. And with all the blogs, trash popular news, and ‘writing’ that we consume on the internet, finding smart people, that write, is surprisingly rare.

Yesterday’s TTMYGH must rank among his best. April 4th? Who’d a thought. I won’t deconstruct the little pathway he takes his readers along, but the framing of his idea was poignant. You shouldn’t miss this weeks issue (A Date Which Will Live in Yenfamy). As you know I’ve been debating this BOJ QE question. Who isn’t? I’m looking for context and perspective, what will the BOJ’s action have in the medium-long term? Grant helps a bit.

Continue reading

bitcoin

Bitcoin Goes OWS

bitcoinRegular readers know I appreciate Grant Williams and his TTMYGH newsletter, his most recent, War Games prompts me to think out loud about Bitcoin.

Mr. Williams makes no reference to Bitcoin, but I’m sure it’s sitting in the back of his mind, much like OWS was sitting in the back of Lloyd Blankfein’s mind last year. Grant presses the dangers of global currency wars and presents an enlightening Asian example of currency influence on GDP, competitivity, even the rise and fall of corporate ’empires’. He links central bank profligacy, inflation, gold repatriation, and paints an ominous picture of our financial future. As usual it’s worth a read!

Bitcoin hit the mainstream media again this week when Bloomberg published, “Bitcoin’s Gains May Fuel Central Bank Concerns“. Zerohedge dutifully reacted with “Is The ECB Responsible For The Second Coming Of BitCoin?

 

Continue reading

TTMYGH – Grant Williams

I am consistently impressed with TTMYGH and his most recent, The Greatest, deserves to be shared. His conclusion is dead on.

I will leave you this week with a great observation from JPMorgan’s Kenneth Langdon, who had this to say about the coordinated interventions of central banks and politicians in the global economy:

“The net result of this partnership between fiscal and monetary authorities is a continuous drain of productive capital from the private sector into the non-productive public sector. Little of that capital will be put to productive use once in the hands of government bureaucrats. As a result of this decimation of capital formation in the private sector, growth will be permanently lower, which in turn creates a negative feedback for the collection of taxes. Major economies are literally being bled to death by this drain of capital from productive uses. Voters are sanctioning this economic suicide.”

Beer Mug

Why Do Pundits Take Weekends?

Beer MugSometimes a Friday rolls around and I turn off the computer looking forward to the absence of information but this weekend was different. Monday rolled around and the Americans were on vacation, deserved sans doute, but I was looking forward to some energy volatility in the markets. Friday’s action portened an interesting Monday, yet I had to wait until today.

The interns responsably reported on the Draghi buying of short-term bond story rumor, there was no reaction until today, almost no criticism. The complaining pundits were having a beer in the garden.( In any case, here’s today’s criticism – warning… ZH). To answer my own question, they take weekends to drink beer.

There was some interesting reporting on depressed Chinese Steel Production (here) and the slow drip of information from China watchers suggesting caution with anything “China”: Output, Funding, Property Prices, Demographics, US Listed Companies, Politics. Much of what I read was negative and sceptically, I see this as a runup to Hillary’s visit, with the exception of Bronte Capital’s analysis of Focus Media. I appreciate his thinking, and writing. He also has a humerous reflection on Ling Jihua’s son playing dying with two naked students in a Ferrari crash (here). They’re both worth reading.

My favorite weekly information without a doubt is, TTMYGH by Grant Williams. This week was especially academic, but insightful. A sort of, “Hello! Wake up… What are we thinking?” I learn something or place something lost each time. I’m happy to learn the popularity of TTMYGH is increasing and Grant is starting to work with Mauldin Economics. Keep it simple Grant. You’ve a great little franchise.

Natural Gas Futures - QG

Pre-Market Indicators (poolside)

This is late, but it keeps me in my routine. The CBOE Put/Call Ratios have been updated (here) and the mid-morning state of affairs, follow:

  • EURUSD (1.2279) + 0.31%
  • Gold Futures (GC) solidly over 1600 ($1614.60) + 0.50%
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.53%
  • S&P Futures (ES) trying to get to 1400 + 0.38%
  • CAC40 + 0.86% 
  • FTSE + 0.47%
  • Asia: (NKD) + 0.98%
  • Corn Futures (ZC) – 1.05%