Monthly Archives: October 2011

Bailout Halflife

$ES_F at 50% retracement…

I’m half back from vacation, half interested in speculating on the weakening Eurozone, half sure the G20 headlines are going to move the markets but I’m a bit more than half interested in my November put spreads…

I impatiently exited some $ES_F shorts today, my stops were too tight, and I knew it. Live and learn, that’s another thing I have to more than half work on improving.

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Fade the Close into Vacation

Not too much intelligent seems to be passing through my little and sceptical-by-nature brain today. It’s Friday again and the start of another well-deserved vacation here in France. I’m avoiding Athens.

Europe is all happy about the upcoming post-pre-meeting with rumors that Merkozy and team are happily in agreement. But it’s so terribly obvious that these are press releases to calm unintended leaks that they actually aren’t happily in agreement. If that makes any sense… The short story seems to be that the meeting this weekend is key (but it isn’t because there’s another next week)… So halfway into the pre-meeting, pre-weekend trading day, Europe is closing on it’s highs with the CAC40 up almost 3% and the $SPY sitting up 1.7%. I’m looking to fade into the close, this is all just too rosy for me. If the $ES_F doesn’t break through 1236, well, fade with confidence.

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Damien Cleusix Global Market Update

Watching paint dry, I stumbled on the reflections of Damien Cleusix today. Really good stuff and well worth reading.

Here’s the link from Zerohedge.

And this is just funny. Sarkozy is excitable and he wants the electorate to know. They released some news this morning that he was ready to go quickly to Frankfurt this afternoon.

Elvis has now left the building….

It started to rain and the markets finally started moving, with the $VIX pushing 35 and the $ES_F touching 1203, it’s time to start paying attention again. And this caught my attention…

From Bloomberg: America’s Bills About to Exceed it’s Paycheck.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows U.S. government debt divided among every man, woman and child will exceed per-capita gross domestic product this year for the first time in International Monetary Fund records dating back to 1980.

The amount owed will reach $46,771 per person, surpassing the $46,750 in output, according to Bloomberg calculations using the IMF’s deficit and growth projections from its September World Economic Outlook. Debt will exceed production by $8,000 per person by 2016, reversing GDP’s $18,400 advantage as recently as 2007, before the world’s largest economy fell into the recession and government spending surged.

U.S. Production vs. Government Debt

It’s hard to be bullish when you’re bombarded with little doses of reality.

I set up some $SPY Nov 121/111 bear spreads this morning and rest firmly bearish on “Europe” and the $EURUSD.

S&P Futures Day Trade

The trade I missed yesterday, came back for me today.

S&P Futures Day Trade

I’d like to know why I made this trade, so that I can make the same again tomorrow, but to be honest, again it simply felt right. Like the trade, I didn’t make yesterday. The American markets were getting tired of bad news from Europe and starting to ignore it.

In the larger context we’re at the top of this range with the bulls hoping for a breakout and the bears waiting for a bounce. I’m simply expecting this volatility to continue.

Lindsay Lohan

Lindsay, George, Gilad Rotation

Lindsay LohanLindsay Lohan, George Clooney and Gilad Shalit all have one thing in common. Not one of them could care less that Germany has lowered expectations for the EU Summit.

That happens to be what took the air out of the bull’s balloon this morning. I saw the release before the markets opened and sat on the news. I sat, and sat, until well it was just too late.  So I didn’t do anything.

In all honesty, shorting the S&P Futures was the first thing that crossed my mind, but I didn’t do it. For readers of this blog, you know I’m already in some SPY 120/117 put spreads, I added some more 120 this morning. So it’s not that bad, but the mistake was not shorting the futures. Atleast for a day trade. The market’s been rallying it was the perfect excuse for the recent bulls to take profits and well I saw the weakness early. I even suspected it would run through the close. Well, well.

I’m not regretting that I missed a trade, I’m noting the fact. This blog is here so that at some future date when I’m eating lunch with Lindsay, George and maybe Gilad, I can say; “You know LiLo while you were worrying about getting sent to jail, and Gilad, you were worrying about getting out, I was missing a good trade! Buddy, I can’t imagine the USA trading France 1000 prisoners for me! George, you were preparing a new top-model slash girlfriend slash teaser for the press, and I was distracted with fantasies of role-reversal: Politicians trading places with Jahova’s Witnesses.”

The stories we’ll tell.

In any case, I missed a good trade this morning.

The PPI numbers come out tomorrow. It’ll be a replay of today if the numbers are bad, though probably drift up if the numbers are good.

On verra demain.

Social Unrest or Frappiccino

Just when the markets start to get back to the business of reporting earnings. Just when the markets start behaving ‘normally’, all the rest of the world starts looking out-of-sync.

The irony came fast and furious this week:

  • Ben and Jerry’s ice-cream and a growing group of protesters near Wall Street. (Known on twitter as  #OWS, or #OccupyWallStreet.)
  • Steve Jobs and his billions in wealth, genius, and factories in China.
  • Berlusconi’s confidence vote, while charges were dropped against DSK.
  • Gold jumps on unrest in north-africa and ignores unrest in NY and Washington.
  • A Giving Pledge or a No Giving Pledge? Starbucks will be serving at a protest near you, soon.
  • Corn mazes and 9-9-9.
  • Drug Cartels, Iran, Oil Cartels. Read WMD’s… Or not…
  • Google+ use surges, but nobody is using it.

What’s the weekend have in store?

SPY Pattern

I thought something looked familiar on the $SPY today. Remember the double top, during the end of September?

For what it’s worth… Gap fill and everything.

SPY Chart October 13th 2011