I missed the morning routine today, lunch with old collegues took precedence, and by an amusing coincidence, the tête à tête became tête à tête à tête à tête.
The four of us ate in a crowded terrace in the 8th. Smoking permitted, of course. The lunch brought back fond memories, and I can’t help reflecting privately each time I see them. I say ‘privately’ because anyone who has spent time around the table with the French will know what it’s like getting a word in edgewise. It’s a type of tennis that I don’t play well, but the mix of qualities, vision and competence around the table made for a great match.
The French aren’t all public service employees working 35 hr weeks and taking 12 week vacations. Atleast this caricature doesn’t fit these particular Parisians who have invested years of their energy building a profitable, competitive company. Hiring an American didn’t hurt, but that’s another story… They’re personally invested for several reasons, but one important (though hard to admit) one, is that they won’t easily find a home elsewhere. I can’t speak to their intentions, they’ve each profited well and in their own manner, but sharing (or listening to) a political discussion with these business owners under no illusion about the current French President, and his particular policy decisions, makes me wonder if France is a ticking time bomb.
Good Morning NY.
- EURUSD (1.2238) – 0.69%
- Gold Futures (GC) still holding over 1600 ($1614.90) – 0.19%
- Oil Futures(CL) – 0.55%
- S&P Futures (ES) – 0.31%
- Europe: CAC40 + 0.37% FTSE + 0.62%
- Asia: (NKD) – 0.98%
- Grain Futures are up between 2-3%
Translating the numbers, it looks like Europe is happy on vacation and the rest of the world is doubtful. The parabolic rise in European equities continue.
There’s a huge amount of expectations built up in ECB intervention, and rumored meetings between Spain, Germany, Draghi, etc.
Hollande appropriately is in London…
This will be a busy news week, expect greater volatility as it grows old.
Work avoidance links:
On the other hand, I probably shouldn’t have mentioned the female punk band Pussy Riot on WINR July 5th (here), now I think this story is worth reading.
Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders
Author: Jack D. Schwager
This is the first book by Jack Schwager that I’ve read. His name is often associated with many of the most popular trading books and honestly, that’s been my principal reason for avoiding them. His titles read like the Dummy Series and fair-enough that’s a great way to sell millions of books.
I’ve had the book in my ipad-kindle app for about 6 months and it shows 47% finished. If I can’t finish a trading book that would mean it’s either written for a PhD in Mathematics or a 7th grader, this book falls in the latter category. His editor knows what sells.
Market Wizards aims, in my opinion, to be inspirational, a how-to book which repeats a few simple concepts over and over. The difference is, that Market Wizards gives a subset of fortunate traders an opportunity to repeat these simple concepts creating an effective authority.
The trading anecdotes and early mistakes of the traders he interviews will ring true for beginners and sound cliche for the more experienced. Market Wizards admitedly has some voyeuristic possibilities, unfortunately, I have been picking this book up for the same reason I might turn on CNN or listen to Adele, it’s comfort food.
Get Market Wizards at Amazon
A while ago I noted (here) that Will Ferrell reminded me of Mitt Romney…
Here’s the trailer.
I’ve written before about my frustrations with central bank intervention, and today I’ll write about it again. I just can’t trade on anything but central banker speaking dates. Yesterday, we had a pre-Draghi post-Draghi opening and today we had follow through. Will weekend rumors calm the overexcited? They’ve started already with the WSJ reporting that other ECB board members are a bit surprised by Draghi’s comments and who better than ZH to add fuel to the fire (here).
The best and maybe most actionable information would be this quote:
If the ECB does nothing next week, the markets will tumble.
I tend to agree, yet something other than talk is unlikely, and I can’t deny the markets reaction, so in-the-end who cares if things change or not? Paul Krugman seems to be ok with the status quo (here). With today’s market reaction who could disagree, deficits schmesifts!
Avoid Draghi and all that is Europe, the world is saved. And just before vacation!
Have a great weekend, here are a few links to avoid while you’re watching the slow creep up.