Monthly Archives: January 2013

bitcoin

Bitcoin Goes OWS

bitcoinRegular readers know I appreciate Grant Williams and his TTMYGH newsletter, his most recent, War Games prompts me to think out loud about Bitcoin.

Mr. Williams makes no reference to Bitcoin, but I’m sure it’s sitting in the back of his mind, much like OWS was sitting in the back of Lloyd Blankfein’s mind last year. Grant presses the dangers of global currency wars and presents an enlightening Asian example of currency influence on GDP, competitivity, even the rise and fall of corporate ’empires’. He links central bank profligacy, inflation, gold repatriation, and paints an ominous picture of our financial future. As usual it’s worth a read!

Bitcoin hit the mainstream media again this week when Bloomberg published, “Bitcoin’s Gains May Fuel Central Bank Concerns“. Zerohedge dutifully reacted with “Is The ECB Responsible For The Second Coming Of BitCoin?

 

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One Chance Is All You Get

ES Chart 25-01-13

I’ll come back to this later but I wanted to get the idea down.

I’ve noticed on my trade setups that the time for action doesn’t come twice. It’s a common occurence that I see a good setup, I hesitate or decide to sit-it-out and it tempts me a second time.

The second time is a bad time to take the trade.

Here’s the example from Friday which got me thinking about this. It falls into the ‘chasing’ category which I’ve learned the hard way to avoid. Parabolic rises trigger an alarm and I start looking for divergences and weakness, for a fade.

In a strongly trending market this is not a “safe” trade, but merits looking for another entry long, if you’re so inclined.

The right entry was just above Friday’s open, and 1497 was the number everybody was watching. The RSI divergence was just asking for a short entry with a target at the 50% retracement. If you made that swing trade, that was a smart trade. If you waited and stuck with the 1497 resistance/stop looking to fade a second time, it would never have worked, atleast on an intraday time frame.

ES 28-01-13 ChartInterestingly if you look at this morning’s action you might have got lucky holding over the weekend.  And now you have a second chance at a long entry.

Should you take it?

Herbalife

Ackman vs. Herbalife

This is porn for traders and scary for MLM fans.

If you haven’t watched Ackman’s presentation on HerbaLife, you should. It’s 3 1/2 hours long, but worth the time. Pershing Square is on a crusade to put HerbaLife out of business, yet his crusade doesn’t seem purely financial. Ackman projects a convincing argument of injustice.

You can find the full presentation on factsaboutherbalife.com.

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Eric Schmidt

Google’s Schmidt and Kim Jong Un

Eric SchmidtThe Executive Chairman of Google, Eric Schmidt may travel to North Korea and the US State Department thinks it’s a bad idea. See Bloomberg here for the gossip.

The State Department commenting that his rumored private visit would be unhelpful, leaves me perplexed. If Eric Schmidt and by relation, Don’t Be Evil, wants to visit North Korea, an Axis of Evil, why would this be unhelpful? It strikes me as a type of pilgrimage.

Coincidentally, or not, the FTC case against Google is being reported as settled. Maybe these two stories have nothing in common, probably they have nothing in common, but I’d be surprised. The politics around these two stories must make for interesting dinner conversation at the Schmidt household.

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Calvin New Year

Happy New Year

Je vous souhaite tous a Happy New Year.

From here the New Year was festive: lots of kids, lots of champagne, a dog banished and jealous. There were some ups and downs but mostly ups.

I’m looking forward to seeing the fiscal cliff drama behind us.

My best to anyone that stumbles on this blog.

Calvin New Year