Tag Archives: Bernanke

Calvin Screaming

Market Manipulation

Calvin ScreamingEvery so often I get thinking about The Manipulated Market. When markets defy logic to such an extreme degree only one of two explanations is possible. 1) Either your understanding of the forces that move markets is so fundamentally flawed that migrant farm work might be more rewarding; or 2) forces are at work which neither the press, bloggers, twitterers, or even Ben Bernanke have the courage to ‘expose’, question, criticize, regulate, or remotely ‘deal with’.

To Big To Fail = Big Enough To Manipulate.

We’re living through a sort of post 9/11 self-reflection while at the same time struggling with the contradictions of rising ‘wealth’ and shrinking disposable income. Capitalism is taking a hit, privacy is taking a hit, and the free market altar seems to be experiencing Alzheimers under stimulus ad infinitum. Some traders make every effort to avoid any and all ‘macro’ inputs to their trading strategy and focus only on: charts, price action, measurable ratios, divergences, volatility, etc. etc. etc. Those traders, presumably investment bank equity desks, and your friendly neighborhood algo are doing well… Very well.

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Credible Confusion

For those watching the gyrations of the S&P Futures, the sceptics are being vindicated. How long will the weakness last is unsure (though I have an idea), but; fear is seeping into the market. The strategy I’ve been following is written about obtusely here, here, and here. The list of red flags which have been raised over the last month is long, and taken individually the market might have easily overlook each. Yet even as the elephant in the room, Mr. Bernanke, tied the lose ends together as optimistically has his communication strategy would permit, traders started looking for an exit.

So that’s all well and good, but what now? The elephant has spoken. Continue reading

Pre-Market Indicators - PMI140912

Pre-Market Indicators September 14th, 2012

Good Morning NY, Woo wooooo. The party continues and all but the hardest core shorts are ‘out’ (or buying gold).

A quote on my news feed which perplexes me this morning:

       *DJ ECB: ECB Bond Buys Cannot Be Made Conditional To Any Negotiation

Is that a double or triple negative? This is going to get very messy.

Up next: Retail Sales, CPI, Industrial Production, Michigan Sentiment, and Business Inventories. It’s a busy day before 10 am. Then it’s the weekend.

The CBOE put-call ratios are updated, here. They are still at extreme lows and reflect the ongoing optimism.

  • EURUSD (1.3065) + 0.70%
  • Gold Futures (GC)  + 0.35%
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 2.07%
  • S&P Futures (ES)  + 0.41%
  • CAC40 + 1.96% 
  • FTSE + 1.49%
  • Asia (NKD) + 1.77%
  • Copper Futures (HG) + 3.36%
  • Silver Futures (SI) + 0.07%
  • VIX: Close 14.05

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Pre-Market Indicators - PMI130912

Pre-Market Indicators September 13th, 2012

Good Morning NY.

The only real news that matters this morning is QE news. Ben, Ben, Ben! The markets are waiting until he speaks and until then, well Nothing Really Matters. Which of course makes me think of Freddie Mercury’s Bohemian Rhapsody. I can’t help imagining Ben as Freddie…

As a result the markets are looking red and feeling flat. The CAC40 is an outlier.

The CBOE put-call ratios are updated, here. They are resting at extreme lows and reflecting strong optimism.

  • EURUSD (1.2794) + 0.13%
  • Gold Futures (GC)   0.01%
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.27%
  • S&P Futures (ES)   0.16%
  • CAC40 – 0.62% 
  • FTSE + 0.06%
  • Asia (NKD) + 0.22%
  • Copper Futures (HG) – 0.11%
  • Silver Futures (SI)  0.54%
  • VIX: Close 15.80

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Pre-Market Indicators - PMI310812

Pre-Market Indicators August 31st, 2012

Good Morning NY,

  • EURUSD (1.2614) + 0.80%
  • Gold Futures (GC)  + 0.23%
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.72%
  • S&P Futures (ES)  + 0.64%
  • CAC40 + 1.18% 
  • FTSE + 0.46%
  • Asia (NKD)  0.68%
  • Copper Futures (HG) + 0.42%
  • VIX: Yesterday’s Close 17.83

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Classic Zerohedge

I’m sure Tyler Durden is not David Zervos!

This is a classic ZH Post. I’m tempted to keep a short list of my favorites… Relating to this little ramp up in the markets here’s their nearly immediate response:

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