Tag Archives: Mario Draghi

CAC40 Divergence

Is Cyprus Risk Being Under Rated?

It’s Thursday evening and we’ve been watching the drama in Cyprus play out for nearly 1 week. There are 2 camps, debating Cyprus risk:

  • “Cyprus’ represents only a small proportion of the EU, throw them under the bus, no big deal, let’s get on with the bull market.”
  • And the, “this is just the tip of the iceberg, one domino ahead of reigniting Greece, Italy, and Spain, buy gold” camp.


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Pre-Market Indicators - PMI060912

Pre-Market Indicators September 6th, 2012

Good Morning NY,

Solidly green this morning, hope runs high… We’re at 14h30 GMT Draghi is going to speak. Silver and Gold are on a run with Gold breaking solidly over 1700. Might I be doing a before Draghi/after Draghi post today?

  • EURUSD (1.2618) + 0.19%
  • Gold Futures (GC)  + 1.00%
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 1.14%
  • S&P Futures (ES)  + 0.57%
  • CAC40 + 0.85% 
  • FTSE + 0.54%
  • Asia (NKD) + 0.40%
  • Copper Futures (HG) – 0.40%
  • Silver Futures (SI) + 1.84%
  • VIX: Close 17.74

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Bloomberg - Draghi - Gossip

European Spin Full Speed

It started yesterday and is in full force today.

Von Rompuy Tweet Chart

And then the ECB via Bloomberg, floating a balloon.

Bloomberg - Draghi - Gossip

And Schaeuble from Dow Jones. “No Conflict Between ECB’s Weidmann and Draghi”.

Full cycle spin. It’s nearly impossible to trade this news cycle today, and probably smart to prepare for tomorrow’s ECB fireworks non-event.

Beer Mug

Why Do Pundits Take Weekends?

Beer MugSometimes a Friday rolls around and I turn off the computer looking forward to the absence of information but this weekend was different. Monday rolled around and the Americans were on vacation, deserved sans doute, but I was looking forward to some energy volatility in the markets. Friday’s action portened an interesting Monday, yet I had to wait until today.

The interns responsably reported on the Draghi buying of short-term bond story rumor, there was no reaction until today, almost no criticism. The complaining pundits were having a beer in the garden.( In any case, here’s today’s criticism – warning… ZH). To answer my own question, they take weekends to drink beer.

There was some interesting reporting on depressed Chinese Steel Production (here) and the slow drip of information from China watchers suggesting caution with anything “China”: Output, Funding, Property Prices, Demographics, US Listed Companies, Politics. Much of what I read was negative and sceptically, I see this as a runup to Hillary’s visit, with the exception of Bronte Capital’s analysis of Focus Media. I appreciate his thinking, and writing. He also has a humerous reflection on Ling Jihua’s son playing dying with two naked students in a Ferrari crash (here). They’re both worth reading.

My favorite weekly information without a doubt is, TTMYGH by Grant Williams. This week was especially academic, but insightful. A sort of, “Hello! Wake up… What are we thinking?” I learn something or place something lost each time. I’m happy to learn the popularity of TTMYGH is increasing and Grant is starting to work with Mauldin Economics. Keep it simple Grant. You’ve a great little franchise.

Pre-Draghi Post-Draghi

This is irressistable and an ironic reflection of the last pre-draghi post-draghi conference (here) where he would do ‘whatever it takes to save the Euro’.

“My remarks in London Weren’t Misinterpreted”. Really?

  • EURUSD (1.2284) + 0.47% -> -0.27%
  • Gold Futures (GC) still holding over 1600 ($1602.60)  0.07%  -> – 0.37% and falls under $1600
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.28% -> – 1.83%
  • S&P Futures (ES) + 0.29% -> – 0.97%
  • CAC40 + 0.11% -> – 2.18% 
  • FTSE + 0.37% -> – 0.84%
  • Asia: (NKD)  0.29% -> – 1.50%
  • Corn Futures (ZC) – 0.22% -> – 1.37%
From Green to Red…
knight Capital

Pre-Market Indicators August 2nd, 2012

Good Morning Mario Draghi Watchers.knight Capital

Today’s ECB meeting has the attention of every market participant, except Knight Capital. Doing nothing is not an option according to the press and recent market reaction. We’ll see, but my guess is expectations have grown out of proportion. You can watch the live webcast here.

The Knight Capital Debacle is classic, funny, sad, ironic, all sorts of adjectives but it still makes me chuckle, that evil sort of chuckle… Knowing how easy it is to make a simple coding mistake or even imagine sabotage, a disgruntled employee, for example. I hope to hear more about this story. ZH does a good job as usual, exagerating here. Knight doesn’t do “HFT”… These were Slow Frequency Trades (SFT) at 20-30 per second, for 30 minutes, and that’s the crazy bit. 30 minutes.

In any case, it should be an interesting day, good trading.

  • EURUSD (1.2284) + 0.47%
  • Gold Futures (GC) still holding over 1600 ($1602.60)  0.07% 
  • Oil Futures(CL) + 0.28%
  • S&P Futures (ES) + 0.29%
  • Europe: CAC40 + 0.11% FTSE + 0.37%
  • Asia: (NKD)  0.29%
  • Corn Futures (ZC) – 0.22%

ECB Pomp n Circus Stances

Welcome to a schizophrenic morning. The headline moves in the market today are being put in place this very minute and the future is spoken by only one of the many little foggy voices whispering in my head this morning. I picked him out on the $ES_F early than stopped him out for no good reason! Again…

[update] As I look at the close now, I’m reminded of Harry Potter’s House-elf, Dobby.

Fighting for top-spot is Mr. George Papandreou who after offering to resign, has just finished lunch in Cannes and is running back to Athens for an emergency cabinet meeting. The popular (and unpopular) press is waiting for the news conference. I think the BBC was the first to report this little twist.

At the same time and fully ignored were the initial claims numbers which came in under 400k. Relatively good news but the running soap opera that is the G20 has all but hijacked the positive earnings and unemployment numbers.

Another contendor is Mario Draghi (Super Mario as he’s becoming known), who after 2 days as the head of the ECB has surprised the markets by lowering it’s key lending rate to 1.25%. This runs contrary to his mandate to fight European inflation but he needs to pee in the garden and with essentially no growth coming from Europe he’s marking his territory. His press conference has just finished, and I have to say he speaks eloquently.

So between those three little tidbits, and the whispering voices in my head, the markets are now off to the races.

Good trading.